Carnegie Mellon University

Epidemiological Forecasting

Computational Biology

By Roni Rosenfeld

Epidemiological forecasting is critical for aiding decision-making by public health officials, commercial and non-commercial institutions and the general public. The DELPHI group focuses on developing the technological capability of epi-forecasting, and its role in decision making, both public and private. Our long-term vision is to make epidemiological forecasting as universally accepted and useful as weather forecasting is today. We select high value epidemiological forecasting targets (currently influenza and dengue); create baseline forecasting methods for them; establish metrics for measuring and tracking forecasting accuracy; estimate the limits of forecastability for each target; and identify new sources of data that could be helpful to the forecasting goal.